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Will gold hit $3k? The next frontier of gold investment

By Philipp Pieper, co-founder of Swarm

November 6, 2024

In today’s unpredictable economic environment, gold remains an invaluable asset for investors seeking stability, wealth preservation and a hedge against inflation. Its allure as a “safe haven” asset has only grown stronger with ongoing global financial uncertainties. Whilst traditional avenues to gold investment have historically included physical holdings or ETFs, a new investment path is emerging: tokenised gold on blockchain. This innovation represents a shift towards greater transparency, accessibility and ownership autonomy, exemplified by platforms, such as Swarm which is pioneering gold tokenization through NFTs.

And gold has hit multiple all-time highs this year. At the time of writing, gold has well and truly pushed through the $2,700 mark and with no signs of slowing down, thanks to global macroeconomic factors. Investors are certainly now considering what a $3,000 valuation could mean for their investment decisions and how they can unlock liquidity in the yellow metal.

The investment thesis for gold

Gold has held its place in investment portfolios due to its enduring value and ability to weather economic storms. As geopolitical tensions, rising inflation and market volatility continue to impact global economies, gold stands out as a hedge against these risks. Historically, institutions such as central banks, stablecoin protocols, investment funds and custodians have turned to gold to protect and diversify their portfolios. Currently, economic indicators signal that we may be in for continued volatility and potentially prolonged inflationary cycles, making gold's role in wealth preservation even more critical. According to the World Gold Council, this year alone gold prices have risen by around 26%, so underscoring its attractiveness in uncertain times - the total value of gold is believed to be over $18trillion. Traditional investments (such as government bonds) also offer stability, but gold provides unique benefits as a tangible, finite resource with universal value - a true asset for those looking to mitigate risk and maintain purchasing power over time.

On-chain gold and new investment use cases

Bringing real-world assets (RWA) like gold onto a blockchain has opened up an innovative way for investors to access the benefits of gold with added flexibility and security. Tokenization platforms enable gold ownership through digital tokens that represent direct, physical ownership of a specific gold bar. Leveraging blockchain technology to ensure transparency, security and ownership control, gives investors the same benefits of holding physical gold but with added features that traditional methods cannot provide. By tokenizing gold, investors and organizations can manage a portion of their portfolio on-chain. This allows for several new use cases:· on-chain portfolio diversification - on-chain gold serves as an easily accessible, low-risk and uncorrelated asset to help balance portfolios that include more volatile crypto holdings.

· systemic risk hedge - with tokenized gold, investors gain an inflation-resistant, stable asset that can be managed seamlessly alongside other digital assets.

· DeFi collateral - tokenized gold can be used in decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems, allowing investors to collateralize their gold tokens for loans or yield-generation opportunities, unlocking liquidity without selling the asset.

How on-chain gold is evolving

One of the primary challenges with traditional gold-backed digital tokens is the lack of direct ownership of the underlying asset. These tokens often represent a claim on the value of gold held by a third-party issuer but lack true physical backing. NFTs address this issue. Gold-backed NFTs that map each token 1:1 to a specific gold kilobar or ounce stored securely with Brinks, a leader in secure valuables storage, is one of the most transparent structures to own gold on-chain. This structure ensures that investors hold direct ownership of the physical gold bar associated with their token, rather than a mere value claim.

This approach brings a level of transparency, flexibility and control that traditional tokenized products often fail to deliver:

· direct ownership - gold NFTs correspond to unique, physically allocated gold bars. Investors can verify the existence and ownership of their specific gold bar, ensuring that they are not reliant on third parties.

· transparency and security - the blockchain-based structure of these tokens allows for immutable proof of ownership and self-custody, ensuring that investors know where their assets are held, giving them more options to trade and use the collateral in DeFi.

· redemption flexibility - investors have the option to redeem their NFTs for the physical gold bar or cash equivalent, allowing for real-world liquidity and ownership that few digital assets offer. If an investor chooses to do so, they can have the gold delivered directly to their address, providing unparalleled control over their asset.

The next frontier of gold investment

The rise of tokenized gold represents a step forward in the RWA market (???????) and aligns with the growing demand for transparent, flexible and autonomous asset ownership. By allowing investors to hold gold on-chain, tokenization platforms provide a way to blend traditional asset stability with the agility of digital finance. Tokenized gold not only offers a more accessible way to own gold but also opens up new financial strategies, such as collateralized lending and yield opportunities within DeFi markets.

Investors today face a unique moment in history where the convergence of traditional safe-haven assets and blockchain technology can redefine how wealth is preserved and managed. By leveraging tokenized gold, investors can enjoy the timeless value of the yellow metal while benefiting from the innovative features of blockchain technology - transparency, accessibility and flexibility. For those seeking a hedge against economic uncertainty, tokenized gold may well be the next evolution in preserving and growing wealth on the blockchain.

This article first appeared in Digital Bytes (6th of November, 2024), a weekly newsletter by Jonny Fry of Team Blockchain.